Economic Analysis
If you are interested in financial markets and the economy,
you are in the right place! Whether you want to know the
latest national and international developments or consult
the most recent economic and financial forecasts,
all you have to do is select the type of analysis of interest
to you from our prize-winning Economics and Strategy Group.
CONTACT
514-879-2529
NBF.EconomicsStrategy@nbc.ca
Monthly Monitors
Each month, the World economic outlook, in particular the North-American context, is reassessed.
It also includes forecasts for the major economic and financial variables.
Weekly Economic Watch
The Weekly Economic Watch offers a commentary on developments in the economic environment as depicted by economic indicators released during the week and on indicators to be published in the upcoming week. Trends in a wide range of international, national and provincial economic and financial indicators are also presented.
Weekly U.S. Recession Dashboard
Given the growing fears of a recession in the U.S., we have decided to resurrect our tracking table for recession indicators. This dashboard shows the current reading and recent momentum of several indicators compared to the ones observed three months before the eight previous recessions
Hot Charts
- U.S.: Ex-rent inflation slowing down quickly
- U.S.: Market not buying the Fed’s guidance suggests weaker USD
- Canada: Inflation has amplified the loss of wealth
- Canada: New retirements exceed growth in the working-age population!
- Canada: Full-time employment rebounds in Q4
- U.S.: Will retailers derail the November jobs report?
- U.S.: Housing freeze hints at rapid transmission of monetary tightening
- U.S.: Goods inflation falling much faster than in the stagflation era
- U.S.: Housing market buckling under the weight of rising mortgage rates
- U.S.: Supply chain constraints a thing of the past
Market View
- Reinforcing fiscal narratives (as slowdown comes into focus)
- Adjusting the [bond] volume
- Our annual look at financial markets’ fickle seasonal tendencies
- Cash is king (with much more of it to flow in 2023)
- Another unsurprising LFS surprise
- A lesser known (& lagged) provincial inflation hedge
- What a difference two years make (for government borrowing)
- NBF quiz show (Results & takeaways from 6th annual Holiday Quiz)
- CPP (and thus the CPPIBC credit) rests on solid foundation
- Draining Canada’s bond market holding tank (a quick progress report)
A detailed listing with links to every Market View report published this year
Special Reports
An analysis on a current economic or financial topic.
- (2022/08/26) Canada : Strong demographics that will stand out even more than expected
- (2022/07/28) Higher interest rates and household debt: Cause for recession?
- (2022/07/22) Inflation frustration: What is wrong with CPI-common?
- (2022/07/18) Wage and Price Control: A bad good idea?
- (2022/01/18) “What’s going on in Quebec?”
- (2021/11/30) Canada can't afford to bleed capital like this
- (2021/08/17) Debt servicing costs
- (2021/08/13) In Focus - Ballot Ballet: A 2021 federal election primer in four acts
- (2021/04/30) Has the BoC disavowed its own core inflation measures?
- (2020/07/24) Canadian Labour Market: Devils in the details
Budgets and Financial Updates
Geopolitical Briefing
- U.S. midterm elections - The return of divided government
- The perfect storm facing Europe
- How Chinese-U.S. relations continue to worsen
- Resource nationalism sweeps Latin America
- America’s growing LNG exports come with great political challenges
- The higher costs involved in moving to a lower-trust global economy
- The environmental controversy surrounding wood-based biofuels
- The Ukraine war and remaking of the world order
- Ukraine and the fog of war
- Is the EU facing the perfect energy and geopolitical storm?
Benchmark Reform Update
This monitor provides a comprehensive picture of the past, present and future issues surrounding the LIBOR transition and broader benchmark reform underway across international financial markets.