Economic Analysis

COVID-19 

This monitor provides daily updates on the evolution of COVID-19 in selected countries using data available as of 8:00am EDT. We also compare the transmission of COVID-19 with that of other pandemics and offer an update of our financial conditions index for Canada.

• Daily Monitor

The policy update, for its part, offers an overview of the monetary and fiscal measures implemented by central banks and governments around the world to mitigate the economic effects of the virus.

• Policy Update

Benchmark Reform Update

This monitor provides a comprehensive picture of the past, present and future issues surrounding the LIBOR transition and broader benchmark reform underway across international financial markets.

• Update

Canadian Economic News

Weekly Economic Watch

The Weekly Economic Watch offers a commentary on developments in the economic environment as depicted by economic indicators released during the week and on indicators to be published in the upcoming week. Trends in a wide range of international, national and provincial economic and financial indicators are also presented.

• Current issue

• Economic Tables

Monthly Monitors

Each month, the World economic outlook, in particular the North-American context, is reassessed. It also includes forecasts for the major economic and financial variables.

Monetary Policy Monitors

Hot Charts

• U.S.: Weak jobs report caused by SUPPLY problems, not weak demand
• U.S.: Not a good combo for USD appreciation
• Canada: More inflation than meets the eye
• Canada: An attempt by OSFI to cool the housing market
• Canada: No interest-payment shock in sight
• Canada: Current account surplus in 2021?
• Canada: Share of vulnerable borrowers surpassing 2017 peak
• Canada: Home price growth is accelerating everywhere
• Canada: Statcan reverses course on core CPI revisions
• U.S.: Are Americans using stimulus cheques to pay down debt?
• World: Emerging economies are expanding

Special Reports

An analysis on a current economic or financial topic.

• (2021/04/30) Has the BoC disavowed its own core inflation measures?
• (2020/07/24) Canadian Labour Market: Devils in the details
• (2020/06/29)  Is a second lockdown inevitable?
• (2020/06/01) Canada’s official reserves: Time for a review
• (2020/05/27) Is Canadian residential real estate teetering on the brink?
• How brain gain sustains the Canadian housing market
• Quebec should resist the temptation of procyclical budgeting
• Fixed Income: The ECB contemplates further monetary policy easing
• New NBF Financial Stress Index does not suggest BoC rate cut
• Presentation to the Canadian Economic Club – January 9, 2019
• Fixed Income: Stock-bond correlations: Are we at an inflection point?

Budgets and Financial Updates

Geopolitical Briefing

• China and the United States continue their pursuit of greater technological self-sufficiency
• Is a carbon border tax inevitable?
• Taiwan’s semiconductor sector on the front line of great power rivalry
• What a unified Democrat government could accomplish
• Superpowers competing for control of minerals and supply chains to fuel the next industrial revolution
• The road ahead for the Biden administration
• U.S. election scenarios
• The potential impact of a surprise Trump victory
• Is the recent EU deal a game changer?
• The impact of a Biden victory

Market View

• Spotlight on the Canada curve
• One more reason to key on the jobless rate [Provi bond investors take note]
• MTRS musings [brief reflections on April’s bond volume data]
• Provi credit: That’s some good peripheral vision
• Searching for slack in North American labour markets
• The CAD angle on June cash flows
• Exploring Canada’s outsized June cashflow effects
• And they’re off! Provincial borrowers skating hard and fast
• Op-ed: The myth of monetization in Canada
• 2021 budget takeaways: Where to begin…