Economic Analysis
If you are interested in financial markets and the economy, you are in the right place! Whether you want to know the latest national and international developments or consult the most recent economic and financial forecasts, all you have to do is select the type of analysis of interest to you from our prize-winning Economics and Strategy Group.
CONTACT
Phone: 514-879-2529
Email:
NBF.EconomicsStrategy@nbc.ca
COVID-19
This monitor provides daily updates on the evolution of COVID-19 in selected countries using data available as of 8:00am EDT. We also compare the transmission of COVID-19 with that of other pandemics and offer an update of our financial conditions index for Canada.
The policy update, for its part, offers an overview of the monetary and fiscal measures implemented by central banks and governments around the world to mitigate the economic effects of the virus.
Benchmark Reform Update
This monitor provides a comprehensive picture of the past, present and future issues surrounding the LIBOR transition and broader benchmark reform underway across international financial markets.
Weekly Economic Watch
The Weekly Economic Watch offers a commentary on developments in the economic environment as depicted by economic indicators released during the week and on indicators to be published in the upcoming week. Trends in a wide range of international, national and provincial economic and financial indicators are also presented.
Monthly Monitors
Each month, the World economic outlook, in particular the North-American context, is reassessed. It also includes forecasts for the major economic and financial variables.
Hot Charts
- Canada: Current account surplus in 2021?
- Canada: Share of vulnerable borrowers surpassing 2017 peak
- Canada: Home price growth is accelerating everywhere
- Canada: Statcan reverses course on core CPI revisions
- U.S.: Are Americans using stimulus cheques to pay down debt?
- World: Emerging economies are expanding
- Canada: Home-price surge is the most pervasive ever
- World: Strongest home price increase in 15 years for OECD countries
- Canada: Strong positive wealth effect despite the pandemic
- Canada: The homeownership dream bolstered by the pandemic
- Canada: A widespread regional recovery for wages & salaries
Special Reports
An analysis on a current economic or financial topic.
- (2020/07/24) Canadian Labour Market: Devils in the details
- (2020/06/29) Is a second lockdown inevitable?
- (2020/06/01) Canada’s official reserves: Time for a review
- (2020/05/27) Is Canadian residential real estate teetering on the brink?
- How brain gain sustains the Canadian housing market
- Quebec should resist the temptation of procyclical budgeting
- Fixed Income: The ECB contemplates further monetary policy easing
- New NBF Financial Stress Index does not suggest BoC rate cut
- Presentation to the Canadian Economic Club – January 9, 2019
- Fixed Income: Stock-bond correlations: Are we at an inflection point?
- Strategy update: Trade war = slower earnings growth
Budgets and Financial Updates
Geopolitical Briefing
- Taiwan’s semiconductor sector on the front line of great power rivalry
- What a unified Democrat government could accomplish
- Superpowers competing for control of minerals and supply chains to fuel the next industrial revolution
- The road ahead for the Biden administration
- U.S. election scenarios
- The potential impact of a surprise Trump victory
- Is the recent EU deal a game changer?
- The impact of a Biden victory
- U.S. tech is the big winner of the China-India border dispute
- Cracks are emerging in the global food supply chain
Market View
- Fed reaction function: This time is way different [as if we didn’t know]
- Forget bird watching, we’re more focused on Fiscal Monitoring
- Putting these extraordinary rate moves in context
- PBPP in its death throes!? Just how violent is this?
- Canada’s cash flow dance: Movement 1 of 8
- The missing link in the BoC’s macro forecast
- RIP PBPP
- Provi bonds pose for their end-of-year non-resident close-up
- Is QE in the eye of the beholder?
- 20/21 vision at the CBO [in some ways, it’s better than 20/20]
- Does the Laurentian mess scupper the notion of implicit support? No
- The non-resident investor factor (in Canada’s bond market)
- Putting a brand-new president in his place
- Domestic Bond Tracker: What a difference a year makes