Economic Analysis
If you are interested in financial markets and the economy, you are in the right place! Whether you want to know the latest national and international developments or consult the most recent economic and financial forecasts, all you have to do is select the type of analysis of interest to you from our prize-winning Economics and Strategy Group.
CONTACT
Phone: 514-879-2529
Email:
NBF.EconomicsStrategy@nbc.ca
COVID-19
This monitor provides daily updates on the evolution of COVID-19 in selected countries using data available as of 8:00am EDT. We also compare the transmission of COVID-19 with that of other pandemics and offer an update of our financial conditions index for Canada.
The policy update, for its part, offers an overview of the monetary and fiscal measures implemented by central banks and governments around the world to mitigate the economic effects of the virus.
Benchmark Reform Update
This monitor provides a comprehensive picture of the past, present and future issues surrounding the LIBOR transition and broader benchmark reform underway across international financial markets.
Weekly Economic Watch
The Weekly Economic Watch offers a commentary on developments in the economic environment as depicted by economic indicators released during the week and on indicators to be published in the upcoming week. Trends in a wide range of international, national and provincial economic and financial indicators are also presented.
Monthly Monitors
Each month, the World economic outlook, in particular the North-American context, is reassessed. It also includes forecasts for the major economic and financial variables.
Hot Charts
- U.S.: Can the U.S. afford to wait until January for another round of stimulus?
- Canada: Will the real jobs data please stand up
- U.S.: Consumers feel the bite from lower income and rising caseloads
- U.S.: Labour market recovery hides worrying trends
- World: Pandemic is a boon to Chinese exports
- World: Expect higher prices for goods
- Canada: Fiscal response to COVID-19 tops G-20 countries
- U.S.: Bond market anticipating sweep by the Democrats?
- World: A less deadly second wave?
- Canada: Back to the 1990s for NAIRU?
- U.S.: Will savings save the day?
Special Reports
An analysis on a current economic or financial topic.
- (2020/07/24) Canadian Labour Market: Devils in the details
- (2020/06/29) Is a second lockdown inevitable?
- (2020/06/01) Canada’s official reserves: Time for a review
- (2020/05/27) Is Canadian residential real estate teetering on the brink?
- How brain gain sustains the Canadian housing market
- Quebec should resist the temptation of procyclical budgeting
- Fixed Income: The ECB contemplates further monetary policy easing
- New NBF Financial Stress Index does not suggest BoC rate cut
- Presentation to the Canadian Economic Club – January 9, 2019
- Fixed Income: Stock-bond correlations: Are we at an inflection point?
- Strategy update: Trade war = slower earnings growth
Budgets and Financial Updates
Geopolitical Briefing
- U.S. election scenarios
- The potential impact of a surprise Trump victory
- Is the recent EU deal a game changer?
- The impact of a Biden victory
- U.S. tech is the big winner of the China-India border dispute
- Cracks are emerging in the global food supply chain
- COVID-19 continues to fracture the geopolitical landscape
- How COVID-19 is widening the Eurozone’s fault lines
- How COVID-19 is reshaping America’s landscape
- How COVID-19 is reshaping great power rivalry and supply chains
FICC Strategy
- Market View: Freshening up Index sims with eye towards Dec 1st/2nd
- Market View: Ontario & Quebec: Two (funding) solitudes?
- Market View: What can be inferred from Ontario’s budget? Plenty
- Market View: Calibrate QE, come on!
- Market View: What a difference a bond makes (to an index)
- Market View: When is a taper NOT a taper?
- Market View: Bank of Canada: Tapering without the tantrum?
- Market View: Canada’s December 1st/2nd effect… cash and lots of it!
- Market View: Go North, Young(ish) Man
- Market View: What’s another $100 billion between friends?
- Market View: Liberal Speech from the Throne: Third time’s the harm?
- Market View: Who’s holding? [Ownership trends for Canada’s growing stockpile of debt]