Economic Analysis
If you are interested in financial markets and the economy,
you are in the right place! Whether you want to know the
latest national and international developments or consult
the most recent economic and financial forecasts,
all you have to do is select the type of analysis of interest
to you from our prize-winning Economics and Strategy Group.
CONTACT
514-879-2529
NBF.EconomicsStrategy@nbc.ca
Monthly Monitors
Each month, the World economic outlook, in particular the North-American context, is reassessed.
It also includes forecasts for the major economic and financial variables.
Weekly Economic Watch
The Weekly Economic Watch offers a commentary on developments in the economic environment as depicted by economic indicators released during the week and on indicators to be published in the upcoming week. Trends in a wide range of international, national and provincial economic and financial indicators are also presented.
Weekly U.S. Recession Dashboard
Given the growing fears of a recession in the U.S., we have decided to resurrect our tracking table for recession indicators. This dashboard shows the current reading and recent momentum of several indicators compared to the ones observed three months before the eight previous recessions
Hot Charts
- Europe: Another shortage... of water this time
- Canada: Unwinding of pent-up retirements impacts job creation
- U.S.: Is the economy officially in recession?
- Canada: Is the “Trigger rate” about to bite for variable rate mortgages?
- Canada: Growing gap between home prices and purchasing power
- Canada: Energy already brings massive fiscal support to governments
- U.S.: Historical perspective on equity bear markets
- U.S.: Could the housing shortage turn into a glut?
- Canada: The BoC was wrong to abandon the jobless rate
- U.S.: Inventories are not bloated
Market View
- Deuces are wild [a comparison of Canada-US fiscal sustainability]
- Concluding a bond supply-valuation dance [Act 3 of 3]
- A bond supply-valuation dance in 3 acts [Act 2]
- The ‘other’ vol (no, not VOLatility, but VOLume)
- A bond supply-valuation dance in 3 acts [Act 1]
- A quick budgetary hat-trick
- Alberta public accounts: No better place to start
- Migration nation
- Bye, bye, bye net bond supply
- BoC QT: Chapter 1
A detailed listing with links to every Market View report published this year
Special Reports
An analysis on a current economic or financial topic.
- (2022/07/28) Higher interest rates and household debt: Cause for recession?
- (2022/07/22) Inflation frustration: What is wrong with CPI-common?
- (2022/07/18) Wage and Price Control: A bad good idea?
- (2022/01/18) “What’s going on in Quebec?”
- (2021/11/30) Canada can't afford to bleed capital like this
- (2021/08/17) Debt servicing costs
- (2021/08/13) In Focus - Ballot Ballet: A 2021 federal election primer in four acts
- (2021/04/30) Has the BoC disavowed its own core inflation measures?
- (2020/07/24) Canadian Labour Market: Devils in the details
- (2020/06/29) Is a second lockdown inevitable?
Budgets and Financial Updates
Geopolitical Briefing
- Resource nationalism sweeps Latin America
- America’s growing LNG exports come with great political challenges
- The higher costs involved in moving to a lower-trust global economy
- The environmental controversy surrounding wood-based biofuels
- The Ukraine war and remaking of the world order
- Ukraine and the fog of war
- Is the EU facing the perfect energy and geopolitical storm?
- Update: Is a carbon border tax inevitable? - (Original version from March 22, 2021) Is a carbon border tax inevitable?
- The Looming Global Water Crisis: An Update
- Supply chain challenges: From just-in-time to just-in-case
Benchmark Reform Update
This monitor provides a comprehensive picture of the past, present and future issues surrounding the LIBOR transition and broader benchmark reform underway across international financial markets.