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Welcome to Economic Impact. We are January 22nd, 2026. Happy New Year to you all. It's the first of the year. Stéfane, happy 2026.

Happy New Year.

So, thank you for being here. It might be a little longer today, we have a bit more slides, but it's so worth it because the last time we spoke, it was December 9th, 2025, and we were a couple of weeks before the end of the year and saying it could be quite an amazing year. So, can you give us the last-minute December 31st?

You're forcing me to come back on 2025.

I am.

Okay. Well, we ended the year with roughly 20% of traded goods around the world that are now subject to tariffs or non-tariff barriers.

Never seen.

It's a big number Nancy. We're talking about $2.6 trillion dollars. It's 4.5 times greater than last year. So, despite this, and that's real protectionism for you. But despite that, if you were an investor in the global stock market, it was a fabulous year. Imagine that. Protectionism associated with more than 20% total return on the MSCI Global Index. Third consecutive year of more than 20% total return.

So that's why the investors are so happy and so confident about the stock market.

It's never happened before.

And what about the performance of Canada?

One would think that we had a poor year because we had bad economy. Actually, we had the worst economy in the G7, but we had the second best stock market in the G7. So more than 30%. Some people will say, yeah, but 1/3 of this return came from gold stocks. Yes, of course, but the rest did relatively well and it was positive returns for financials and the energy sector. So all in all, a very good year for Canada. We were the worst student in economic growth, from an economic growth standpoint, but the second best in terms of stock market performance.

Okay. And now if we look at 2026, because I'm already exhausted about everything that we read in the paper and it's been 3 weeks only in 2026. So, how is it going?

A lot of noise from politicians. So, 32%, you say you can't beat that, but year to date we're not even done for January and the Canadian stock market is already up 3.7%. So, are we on track to beat last year? I can't promise you this but all in all, I can say is despite all the political noise, a Canadian investor is not losing money. All the asset classes are up this year. Notice, yeah, the bond universe is not doing all that great but it's positive.

It is.

But look at the stock market in Canada delivering returns that are three times greater than what you see in the U.S., so not a bad performance under these circumstances.

And what's the sentiment of investors? Not necessarily of particulars, individuals, but how about investors?

Oh U.S. investors?

U.S. investors.

So, U.S. investors, well, they're bullish. They're looking at this and they say "We haven't seen a proportion of bullishness as high as what we see right now in two years". So, it's midterm election year. People are expecting that the president will deliver economic growth that will be above potential, good for earnings. So that's the type of sentiment that we're seeing in the U.S.

And throughout the world?

It's not constrained to the U.S., it's not limited to the U.S. It's global. Expectations for global equities to deliver earnings per share growth of 15%. That's 50% greater than last year, Nancy. But look, everyone expected to be in positive territory.

Look at Europe.

11, yeah, zero point. That's a big improvement.

It is.

It seems like people don't think that will be a follow through in terms of global threats, whether it's in the military and conventions, et cetera, et cetera. So, but that also says that the market is vulnerable to disappointment if you don't deliver on these earnings growth. So very, very high expectations again this year for earnings growth.

And the next slide that you have is absolutely amazing. You know, when we say that an image is worth 1000 words, so maybe you want to show it to us because it really is showing the the impact of U.S. from 2020 to 2024. It's amazing.

So, a lot of people ask me, what is Washington attempting to do? Well, they want to revert to a map of the world that is a little bit different than what we have right now. Let me explain. Back in 2000, the U.S. was the main trading partner for most countries around the world.

That's the blue.

That's why the map, it's mostly blue, right? 20 years later, China has increased the size of its manufacturing sector by more than 13 times. The map has changed quite significantly. So the U.S. is not comfortable with this saying, "Well, we want a greater share of this manufacturing", hence the protectionism policies that are being deployed. But it will come with other ramifications. But at this point in time, this is the U.S. strategy. They would like to see more blue on this map.

So, that means you need to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. or having the U.S. being involved in manufacturing throughout the world.

Explaining how the markets are behaving right now because, oh if you wanna do that, it's gonna cost a pretty penny. You have to invest. You gotta get government involvement. It's gotta be good for earnings. And from U.S. perspective, what that means is they, back in 2000, they accounted for 24% of global production, manufacturing production that is. They're down to less than 16%. China has gone from 8% to 32%. So, the U.S. needs to re-industrialize and they want to do it quickly. So they're doing it with tariffs. Yeah, but there's so much you can do with just tariffs alone.

Yeah. And if you want to do that, you need the electricity.

You know what, economic activities, energy transformed. You're absolutely right. So, you want to do manufacturing, you're going to need electricity.

You want to do AI, you need electricity.

Absolutely. So, you want to re-industrialize, whether it's traditional or nontraditional ways, you need electricity. The Chinese electricity grid is larger than the U.S. and the EU combined. So, the Americans need to rebuild their electricity grid, so does the Europeans. So what does he do Nancy? When everybody wants to do the same thing at the same time?

Prices go up for whatever goes into it, which is copper.

And the copper input is surging right now, so.

Which is good for Canada because we are producing a lot of copper.

We are a producer and we do export some copper, so it has a positive impact on the trade balance. You're right. But it's an all time high. So you can see the reflation trade mindset in the market saying, wow, there's going to be more spending. Companies are able to raise prices. That could be good profits. It comes with uncertainties down the road.

Yeah, there could be tariffs that make it-.

That's the mentality at this point.

Not as attractive to export, but still.

And, if there's more demand for electricity, basic economy, prices will go up.

And input prices are up. So, guess what? Electricity prices are rising quite significantly. U.S. up 42% in the past five years. It's not good for politicians. Up 17% Canada, 23% gap there. So, that's why I do believe that, you know, there might be temptation for the president to want to make a deal with Canada later this year on the trade front because, as you and I have discussed previously, what's the biggest enemy of politicians? Not necessarily your adversary.

It's inflation.

It's inflation. So, the president is mandated to bring inflation down for the midterm election year.

So, lots of uncertainties, geopolitical prices are going up. People will go for gold.

You're right. So inflation uncertainty, because you don't know which way it's going to go. And then there's a political uncertainty, U.S. dollar uncertainty, and gold is surging. It's a big component. It's now 20% of the market cap of the S&P TSX. It's even larger than energy stocks nowadays. So, that's a big deal. And I think that the path of least resistance is to go to $5000 and maybe higher, Nancy. So, that helps support the Canadian stock market.

Of course. So, with all this reinvestment and we know that governments will need to get involved, that means that, you know, the debt is going to increase.

That gets back to your gold comment. Why? Why are you looking for a safe haven? Because you're not sure about the discipline of these politicians in the midterm election year, particularly in the U.S. where the president has already pledged to deploy a $400 billion stimulus for the midterm election year. So, that's a big deal. And with the intervention in Venezuela pledging to rebuild the Venezuela economy, that could cost money or get government involved to help entice the private sector to invest. So, a lot of government debt out there. You can see Canada, actually, we have a little bit more deficits than in the past, but.

Still disciplined.

Still disciplined, relatively speaking. You're absolutely right.

Yeah. And what about interest rates?

Well, if the U.S. is running big deficits like that, it's gonna have global ramifications. So, long-term interest rates are rising across the globe. They're surging in Japan, higher in the U.S. And what that means from a central bank perspective, you have to be disciplined too, because notice that even though the Bank of Canada has lowered interest rates from, the most recent move from 3.77 at the spring of last year to where we are right now, 2,25, if you're a mortgage holder, looking at five-year mortgage rate, the five-year government bond yield hasn't changed. So, we are dependent of what happens in the U.S. Hence, we need to maintain their fiscal discipline, but it shows the limit of what monetary easing can achieve. Nancy, it's not because you bring it down even more nowadays that you'll get relief on long-term interest rates. That, you depend on what happens globally and particularly in the U.S.

And the next slide is also amazing because we've seen everything that has been announced and implemented for immigration in Canada. And I remember two years ago saying, you know, there was more than a million people coming. It was like Newfoundland joining Canada. Can we see the next slide? Because this is quite a shock.

So, I'm not going to get major relief from the Bank of Canada on rates because you need to protect long-term rates. But the other thing is, I'm not going to get relief from surging population to prop up growth because population growth is expected to be negative this year. And, Nancy, that doesn't really happen very often.

1970.

And even if I were to go back to the 1950s, it's never happened. So, that means lower growth for Canada.

So, what are we going to do to grow?

We need to offset this. So, the government has tabled the budget and Ottawa saying, well, "Here I need to bring back investment to the country", so we can offset this by better policies meant to entice foreign direct investment to come to Canada. That's the key. We need to rebuild our productivity and that's not gonna be done without business investment. So, that is the main issue for 2026, the execution after tabling a budget and the MOU with Alberta, now it's all about execution. We need to offset this.

So, if we summarize, there's still going to be a lot of geopolitical impact this year.

Not going away.

Not going away. There's still going to be inflationary pressure, at least in the U.S. and maybe in other countries as well.

Yes and no, because I don't know how to answer that one. We know the president is mandated to bring inflation down. Now, you can do it via lower rates. He wants lower rates, but he's also dictating what companies should do to help him bring inflation down faster. That could mean asking IT companies to participate in rebuilding the electricity grid. That's not good for profit margins. You could ask U.S. banks to lower interest rates on credit cards. That's not good for profit margins. And you can ask home builders that there's no more stock buybacks. We want you to build homes. That could be bad for profit margins. So, the uncertainty about the U.S. is how the political world will go in terms of trying to lower inflation with these non traditional measures. That's why I still like Canada over the U.S. But to your main question, the stock market seems to be the place where you want to be right now. But I can't promise you that's the place where you need to be for the rest of the year. So, for now, okay. But don't forget what I showed you before. These profit expectations are-.

So high.

Quite high. 

Well, Stéfane, as usual, it was an amazing presentation. Very happy that I have the chance to do this with you again this year. To all of you, I hope you enjoyed it and thank you for being here. And we'll see you in February. Merci Stéfane, thank you.

Hello everyone and welcome to Economic Impact. We are December 9th, 2025. First, I want to say a big thank you to my colleague Denis Girouard, who was the lead of this little video for more than two years. And I also want to thank him because he was, for more than 30 years, a strong pillar at National Bank. So, Denis, happy retirement and thank you for everything that you did. So, I'll take a minute to introduce myself. I am Nancy Paquet, Head of Wealth Management at National Bank, and I have the privilege of having this conversation with Stéfane Marion today. Stéfane is our Chief Economist as you know him. So, Stéfane, what can you tell us about 2025?

Well, I thought since you're here with me this morning, Nancy, that I would start, Wealth Management would start with the returns that we've seen across different asset classes so far. The year's not over Nancy.

Yeah, two weeks, but still, everything is positive.

Everything is positive, so everything is in the black, you'll be happy about that. And notice the performance of the Canadian stock market.

Wow.

Who would've guessed?

Who would've guessed in January when it was the first day of the American new presidency and we were so worried and not knowing really what was going to happen. This is amazing, but how can this happen?

Well, if you put some historical perspective on this 30%, it's, you know, we're looking and there's still possibility that we could chase, you know, beat the record that we saw in 2009, Nancy. But I think it's a reflection of resilience in equity markets. Yes, gold prices were up, but also banks did very well. But banks won't do well if the economy doesn't do well. And I think one of the most surprising factors, the stock market was surprising, but every stock market in the world finished a year in positive territory, but what was surprising is the performance of the economy where the unemployment rate, as of last Friday, the day that was published shows that the jobless rate in Canada is now lower in November than it was at the start of the year and we went through a very scary period here, over 7% and now back at 6.5%.

But hopefully this is the beginning of a trend and not just a statistic hiccup. So, do we know the quality of those jobs? Because that could have a major impact.

It's a good question. Maybe it was the people that just left the labour force. So, it's not a quality reading on the jobless rate. So let me reassure you, Nancy.

Oh, that's good.

More than 380,000 jobs so far in 2025, mostly full-time. That's great. Well-distributed private, public sector, mostly private this time around, which is good news and concentrated in industries that pay more than the average across industries. So, all in all, a good structure to support the economy.

Good. Looking forward to seeing the next graph next, in a month when we're going to do the next video because it would be amazing that it really is the beginning of a trend.

Yeah, well, be careful. It's super volatile. But I have to say the past three months have been surprising. So, even if we, finishing a year below 7% on the jobless rate was quite an accomplishment and with these types of full-time job creation, I think is supportive and brings us hope for 2026 that the economy shows resilience at the end of this year was good news.

So, we saw the markets doing well. We saw the unemployment rate going down and tomorrow, we're Wednesday, with the announcement of Bank of Canada. So, what do you think?

They can't lower rates. They're going to stay put. U.S. will drop rates, but not Canada. The economy is doing somewhat better, inflation’s about target, but nonetheless you can't justify reducing rates at this point in time. So, the Bank has done a good job. They were pre-emptive. They were concerned about the economy. Now they posit, Nancy, and we'll see what happens in the next few months. But for now, I think suffices to say that you remain on the sidelines.

Okay, so all of this should lead to our snowbirds being happier. Is the dollar improving so that they can go South and enjoy the sun?

Yes, snowbirds will be happy, but also people that try to have a forward view or longer-term view on Canada because I think the currency is less susceptible to a decline given the macro backdrop, but also what the federal government has deployed in recent weeks in terms of budgets. But also, you know the Memorandum of Understanding with the U.S. The Alberta sorry. So Canadian dollar has gained 3 cents. So yes, if you travel overseas or to the U.S., you have a somewhat stronger Canadian dollar and that's good news because that helps maintain their standards of living.

Absolutely. And with all this, I mean we can create our own jobs and our own companies, but to increase our productivity, we also need to have foreign dollars coming to Canada, and I don't think that's a good number yet, right?

No, and you're right, that's why I want to be prudent for 2026 to sustain the job growth that we've been speaking to into next year. I need to bring investment back to Canada. So, we had two good positive quarters, but then we're back into negative territory. And notice Nancy, you know, we haven't been able to attract investment in this country for the past decade. So, hopefully what the federal government has done with the agreement with Alberta, there's a perception now that the energy sector is no longer stranded. So, you can come to Canada, invest, build factories, and have access to energy. If you want to do data centres, you can use natural gas to supply your data centres. So, that is a possibility that you bring foreign direct investment. So, the policies that have been deployed are structuring, but I need to confirm them. You're absolutely right to maintain a strong bid on my labour markets in 2026. Can't do it without business investment. You're absolutely right. We need to see that in 2026.

Absolutely. And what about our neighbors from the South? How are they feeling?

I don't know if they're disappointed because of what's happening to Canada, but their consumer confidence in the doldrums. Maybe there's some jealousy here.

That's surprising.

Yeah. So, it reflects frustration because whether or not the politicians will admit to it or not, if you impose a tariff structure of roughly 15% on your imports, which is what the U.S. is doing right now, it's showing up on inflation. And the U.S. household sector doesn't have access to the generosity of the social safety net that we have in Canada, so every bit of inflation bites even more, right? So, yes, quite the frustration. Lowest consumer confidence since COVID. So, I'm sure the U.S. president is looking at this saying "Well, you know that's not sustainable. Maybe I need to reframe my tariff structure in 2026, it could give me some little bit of appeasement on the CPI.".

And there isn't a lot of time to be able to do that because midterm is November.

That's why you might say that in midterm election year, the White House will do everything in its power to bring consumer confidence back up. And I don't think it's with higher tariffs, it's with lower inflation and lower interest rates.

Okay, so what about mortgages in the States? Well, I'm getting a little lower interest rates with the Fed again tomorrow, Nancy. Will be below 4%, but the problem is the frustration comes from the fact that the 30-year bond yield is not coming down. So, if the government bond yield doesn't come down, then the 30-year mortgage rate's not coming down. So, unlike a homeowner in Canada, in the U.S. they're not feeling the impact of monetary easing because long term rates remain very sticky on the upside.

So they have inflation and they have their mortgages payments not going down, so that's a frustration.

That explains the lack or the low level, the low reading on consumer confidence.

Absolutely. And what about government spending? What's happening in Canada, U.S.?

It's a global phenomenon, so you have to be careful what you wish for in 2026. So we've had good growth this year, but it's been supported by massive government stimulus across the planet. So, unless I deploy productivity gains in 2026, at some point you'll have to pay the piper on that one. So, for financial markets, we've had low volatility because stronger than expected economic growth, but does that come back to bite us in 2026 is the big question. So, unless I deploy productivity gains in the next few quarters, you might want to reassess the valuations on your global financial markets. So, 2025 was a spectacular year on the back of government spending. 2026 I need to deliver on productivity gains to justify these high valuations.

Productivity meaning AI, agentic AI, review of processes, investment in plants so that they can do. 

You're so right.

So much more.

You're so right. So everybody, we're seeing the investment, now does it translate into productivity. You and I will have a lot of conversations next year on that topic.

Definitely. So Stéfane, looking forward to hearing you again in 2026 to see what it will bring to us. I want to thank you for taking the time to listen to this little time with Stéfane and I want to wish you a happy season. Take the time to rest. It's two weeks where you can spend time with family and friends. So, looking forward to seeing you again in January. Thank you, Stéfane.

Thank you.

Hello everyone, welcome to Economic Impact. Today we are November 12, 2025, and as usual, I am with our Chief Economist, Stéfane Marion. Stéfane, once again we need to talk about, you know, Canada versus U.S., but rate cuts now.

There are so many things we want to speak to you Denis today, but let's start with the rate cuts because that's your specialty as a former head of fixed income. So yes, monetary easing cycle continued in Canada in October. 9th. It was the 9th easing rate cut since the beginning of the cycle that started in the summer of 2024. You know, we spoke last month, could there be more? The Bank of Canada was cautious on this one, Denis. It says, "I'm giving you one, but I think rates are neutral and I think I might be done for this easing cycle". So there's a considerable gap that remains with the U.S., you know, to reflect some of the challenges that we face on this side of the border. But it seems like the Bank of Canada is comfortable now saying, "Well, maybe monetary policy is where it should be".

Do you think it's unusual thinking that the rates will not go lower, considering what we see in the economy right now?

I would have thought so, like you, but the surprise in the Canadian economy over the past month, the past two months, is the uncanny resilience. So, the service sector in Canada, which is the biggest chunk of the Canadian economy, is indicating growth for the first time in nine months, right. And the manufacturing sector is still showing contraction, but nowhere near as bad as what we saw, so it seems like the Canadian economy is stabilizing with growth. It's not a boom Denis, but it's better growth than we had forecasted. So, you could justify the Bank of Canada's message based on the recent evidence that we're getting from economic reports.

And this is also what we get from the unemployment number, which was a big surprise.

All these surveys are meaningless if you can't confirm it with real data. And the real data shows that we've had some job creation to the extent that, good enough, to the extent that the unemployment rate actually edged below 7% for the first time in a few months. And more importantly, the wage inflation is growing at roughly 4%, which is above inflation. So that means that there is purchasing power at the consumer level that could help stabilize the Canadian economy, despite the fact that the export sector remains challenged.

It's quite interesting seeing that because this is not the perception we have when we're listening to the news. It's very negative compared to the results here.

You're right. And if you look at the, you know, there's been announcement that Ottawa's thinking about reducing quite significantly the size of the civil service in Ottawa. But having said this, what's happening in the private sector in Canada shows again, this resilience. So, notice in the U.S., the trend on private sector employment, this is a private survey Denis because, as you know, the government is still shut down-reopening, but it's going to take time to get the official data. But the private sector suggests this downtrend in U.S. employment growth. Canada is more volatile. So, I can't say that we have broken the trend with the U.S., but clearly in the last month we did. So again, that just speaks to some resilience in the private sector because the earnings season was better than expected on the S&P/TSX, so that would be reflected on employment. So, private sector holding up relatively well at this point in time. Again, suggesting that the BoC, the Bank of Canada, might have been justified to say, "Well, maybe we've done enough".

Now we have the reason. Ok. And now we have to talk about the budget in Canada because we spoke about it the last time. Now it's done.

Yeah, so we spoke last month. Ok, so one of the reasons the Bank Canada says, "Well, I need to pause now" is because, you know, we are getting fiscal stimulus in Canada. Maybe the budget was not as transformational as we thought it would be last month where we were arguing for $100 billion deficit, 3% of GDP. It came in that $80 billion. So, Denis, close enough to say, is it a structuring budget? I think it is because if you look at the composition of the spending for the years ahead, look at these blue bars, this is investment. This is not just spending that just goes to consumers and then that disappears in the economy through some import leakages. Absolutely not. This is a commitment to invest in the Canadian economy and to start to reindustrialize the country. So, notice that on the operating balance, you know, Ottawa says "Well, we'll be in surplus in three years from now, but we are committing roughly $280 billion to investment in the Canadian economy". So, Denis, that is structuring.

And this is how you build confidence in an economy when you see that amount of investment, which are not expenses, which down the road will produce revenue.

Yes, so, so you're going to run a 2.5% deficit as a share of GDP this year. But the commitment to skew it towards investment means that investors are unlikely to say, "Well, we don't believe in your story". They're going to say, "Ok, finally". And it's not just the spending Denis, it's also the commitment to reduce the substantial amount of regulation in this country. And also, importantly to say, maybe assets will be available for these pension funds to buy into Canada. So, in terms of, you know, positioning this budget, I would say it is structuring. So, we spoke about that last month and that was important and I think that they went in the right direction. Now there's a few things that need to be settled among which, you know, trade negotiations with the U.S. need to resume because that stopped since last time we saw each other. So. But again, it's certainly a big step in the right direction.

And that new picture to see deficit probably translates also positive on the stocks in the equity market because, we're not at a new high, but we're doing quite well.

Well, the performance this year has been stellar. I mean, more than 20%. Last time we saw that was 1993. By the way, that's the last time the Blue Jays won the World Series.

Well, we were close this year.

You were close.

Very close.

But we did more than 25% in 1993. So, we didn't win this year, but maybe, you know, more than 20% is great. So, aside from the Blue Jays, there's the fact that again, this budget is credible. And if you cut regulations for corporation, that means that you will help profitability down the road and that's more sustainable for the Canadian economy. We need to bring investment back to Canada. It's making Canada investable again. And I think on that side, the budget was important for investors. So, a lot of good news already priced in Denis. I can't promise you a repeat performance next year, but this proves that, you know, the budget was relatively well received. Now it's a matter of execution.

Yeah, exactly. And we see also that the Canadian dollar are fine, kind of. We saw the bottom, but now I think it's above $0.70. It's natural that the Canadian dollar is there.

No, you're right. And since the start of the year, we've seen, you know, Canadian dollar depreciation. Our forecast is, well, we might go to 1.42. You can see we went to 141.5, which is close enough to 142. I think you'll agree with me. Now, have we found the cruising altitude? A key condition to finding the cruising altitude for the Looney was this budget. So, the budget is credible. Now, what we're missing is, the budget was necessary, but not sufficient. Now we need to execute on bringing the regulation but also restarting these trade discussions with the Americans to provide, to have the full impact of the budget. So again, not out of the woods, but I think we're starting to find a cruising altitude. So, there might be more side for Canadian dollar appreciation in the quarters ahead.

Well, thank you Stéfane and thank you all of you. Today is my last presence on the stage. I would like to thank all the people, the investors who are listening to us and the positive comment that we get and we had. Very, very helpful to make that, you know, capsule better and better every day hopefully. I would like to thank also all the people here who make that thing happen. Spectacular team, all the technicians and the people around these stages are fantastic. And Stéphane, thank you very much for let me do that for you for the last past two years or so. It was a lot of fun, a lot of pleasure and long life to Economic Impact.

Denis if I may, I just have to thank you for the 35 years you spent at the Bank. And I would just want to say it was a privilege to work with you.

Thank you Stéfane.

Thank you very much.

Goodbye.

Hello, everyone. Welcome to Economic Impact. It's October 14, 2025. I am with Stéfane Marion, our Chief Economist. Hello, Stéfane. A bit different today. You know, in absence of economic news and then the weight of the budget of Mr. Carney, we're going to talk about performance, but also gold.

So, we have a U.S. government shutdown, we're still waiting for a budget in Canada, China and the U.S. are still going at it with tariff threats. But in the meantime, new all time high for equities as of last week, Denis. So, the absence of news seems to be good news for markets. I can't promise we're going to end the year at a record high. It's been a fantastic year, up more than 30% since April. So, let's keep an eye on the next few weeks. As I say, I think there's going to be more volatility.

And all assets are performing well also.

Yeah.

Which is unusual.

In the meantime, Denis, if you want to look at it from an asset class perspective, you couldn't go wrong this year. So, it's a fantastic vintage for a Canadian investor. This is total returns expressed in Canadian dollars. So, we've had, you know, good performance for the Canadian dollar year to date, but up more than 20% for emerging markets. Look at the S&P TSX, up more than 20%. But as I said, you couldn't go wrong this year because every asset classes were up. The only ones not beating inflation would be a Canadian bond market and obviously cash. But all in all, a good vintage for Canadian investors.

And for the first nine months, the S&P and TSX are doing quite well if you compare to the past.

Well, 20.7% for the S&P TSX, 8% for the S&P 500. If you put this in perspective, more than 20% in nine months for the S&P TSX doesn't happen very often, Denis. Last time it happened, you have to go back to 2009 as the economy was rebounding from the Great Financial Crisis. Prior to that, you have to go back to the 2000's, just before the bursting of the NASDAQ bubble, so, fantastic performance. So, let's not be too greedy as investors either, right?

Yeah. And not only that, but all sectors inside the TSX did well.

All sectors delivered positive returns, except for healthcare. But I have to say that, you know, beating the index, 3 sectors beat the index, IT, banks, but the one that had the most leverage on the overall index was materials, up more than 76%, and, within materials, gold stocks were up more than 100%.

And now gold stocks represent a lot inside, you know those indices.

Some people will say, well, it's a record. It's not there yet, Denis. So roughly 11% of the S&P TSX.

Very close though.

The market cap is gold stocks. Going back to the 1970s, the only other instance where we surpassed the current level would have been in 2012. Remember back then people were fearing the debt crisis in the Eurozone. My view, Denis, I do have a strong conviction that we will probably exceed the all-time high in the next few weeks just because of the geopolitical backdrop.

We are at the high right now at $4000 U.S. and the gold.

You're right. So, if you go back to, and if you express this, because I wasn't sure if you were talking about in 2025 dollars, but you were, $4000. If you go back to the 1970s and if you express everything in 2025 dollars, in 1980, yeah, gold prices was lower in nominal terms, but in 2025 dollars it was the equivalent of $2800. Can you believe it's only at the beginning of this tear we were still below $2800 and now we're at more than $4000. So, the question is, is there still upside for gold? If you want still upside, you need more buyers, right?

And there's a lot of buyers. The world is buying gold right now.

Everyone seems to be buying gold. But I think that where it becomes interesting is that there's an institutional demand for gold and central banks are accumulating gold. They own now 36,000 tons of gold, which now represents roughly 1/4 of their total assets. So, and in the meantime, not everyone, that's the global average. If you can look at a country like Germany is at 70%, but a country like China, which is a big central bank, they still own less than 7% of the total assets in gold.

Yeah, which is very unusual. But now, they own more gold than treasuries.

At the global level, you're right. That 26% seems high, but if you put it in perspective going back to the 1970s, it's still much lower than what we saw there in the 1970s. But you are right to say that they are, the central banks, the institutional demand is diversifying out of U.S. treasuries. And now for the first time since the early 1990s, the central banks own more gold than U.S. treasuries. So, that's part of this whole geopolitical backdrop uncertainty. These central banks are big. If they're not sure about whether the U.S. will still have a dominant role in global financial markets, there they are diversifying and they're not buying Bitcoin, they're buying gold as opposed to U.S. treasuries.

They're buying gold, but they want to buy more.

So, you could say at 26% that they had enough. And there's a survey, there's an interesting survey that's published every year and for the first time since the survey has been available, we reached a new all-time high about, you know, the so-called willingness of these central banks to accumulate more gold. And now we have 43% of these banks saying, you know what, I might still buy more over the coming year. So, that's the point of today's presentation. There's demand for gold, people are asking us what's happening. What characterizes the current cycle for gold is this institutional demand coming from these central banks.

Yeah. We're going to change the subject a little bit. It seems that tariffs bring a lot of money and from Trump's pocket.

True. And that puts uncertainty on inflation and that is also a source of demand for gold because these central banks are saying, well, clearly the U.S. wants to disengage from the global supply chain or they want to reindustrialize, it might cost more. And at the end of the day, this old, you know, tariff collection now, Denis, which really started in June, now reaches $360 billion annualized in Q3. Don't forget, Denis, we said it last month, we're going to end the year at $500 billion of tariff collection. So, that is also part of the reason these central banks are saying, well, that might put more pressure on inflation, lower U.S. dollar. Buy gold because of this uncertainty.

Well, thank you, Stéfane, and thank you all for continuing to listen to us. But above all, don't miss our next meeting in November. Thank you.

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